AfD hopeful Holm reaches for Schwesig's constituency in MV!

AfD hopeful Holm reaches for Schwesig's constituency in MV!

An exciting election campaign for the 2026 state elections is underway in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Leif-Erik Holm, the state chairman of the AfD, was recently nominated as a direct candidate in constituency 8 (Schwerin I) with an impressive 88 percent of the vote. This decision was made at an election meeting of the Schwerin AfD district association, in which Holm received 60 votes, while only 8 voted for other candidates. He has set himself the goal of taking the mandate from Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD) and is aiming for an absolute majority, as the [Borkener Zeitung](https://www.borkenerzeitung.de/welt/in-ausland/politik-inland/AfD-Landes Chairman-tritt-in-Schwesigs-Wahlkreis-an-671546.html) reports.

Why is this constituency so important for Holm? In the last state election in 2021, Schwesig secured a whopping 46.4 percent of the votes. That's a real challenge for Holm, but he's all the more eager to take on the challenge and has already announced that he wants to be chosen as candidate for prime minister at a party conference in November. What's interesting is that this is supposed to happen without a formal nomination - a tactic that remains unclear so far. The AfD state list will not be drawn up until the beginning of next year, and Holm has already made it clear that he is not aiming for first place on the list, but is relying entirely on the direct mandate, as NDR finds out.

Political dynamics in the constituency

A lot has happened in the political landscape of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania since the last election. According to surveys, Manuela Schwesig's SPD has lost support and is currently at 21 percent, almost halved since 2021. In contrast, the AfD has gained support in the northeast and recently reached 29 percent. These developments could play into the hands of Holm, who was also able to gain experience as a member of the Bundestag when he ran as a candidate for mayor of Schwerin in 2023, but was eliminated in the runoff election against Rico Badenschier.

Badenschier, who has now decided to step down at the end of the year, is giving the AfD additional opportunities in the mayoral election in Schwerin. There are also tensions within the party in the background: a power struggle is looming between Holm and Enrico Schult, the co-chair of the AfD. Schult was surprised by Holm's decision to rely on the direct mandate after the majority of the state executive committee voted for him as the top candidate in July.

What does the future say?

How the situation will continue remains to be seen. A broad round of nominations is imminent, and the other parties such as the CDU, which has already elected its direct candidate in Rostock with Daniel Peters, and the Left, which could enter the race with Education Minister Simone Oldenburg as a possible top candidate, are also planning their strategies. The Greens also have nominations on their radar. All of these factors will play a role in the coming election campaign.

It remains to be seen how the polls and sentiment will develop before the elections. However, one thing is clear: in politics there are often surprises and nothing is set in stone. Although surveys are an important indicator, their informative value remains limited, as the analysis by Dawum shows.