Dax in the strangle control of geopolitical risks: Fed session ensures tension!

Dax in the strangle control of geopolitical risks: Fed session ensures tension!

In the world of trade and finances, there is currently a lot of excitement. The DAX moves in the area of ​​tension in geopolitical imponderables and monetary -political uncertainties. Today, on June 24, 2025, the financial world looks forward to the upcoming speeches by Fed leader Jerome Powell, who could give important impulses. The publication of the IFO business climate index on Tuesday at 10 a.m. is also the focus of the market participants. This could significantly change the mood on the market, especially with regard to developments in the Middle East conflict. This situation is currently heated up by a warning from the Iranian president towards the United States, which warned of an attack in Qatar. President Trump recently said that it was time for peace.

However, the uncertainties do not disappear. According to the current reports of IFO on the economic situation, in spring 2025 we are facing geopolitical and economic policy changes that could mix up the global economy structure. The change of politics in the United States brings new security policy challenges to Europe and the US government has started to build new trading hurdles. This leads to a brake effect in global trade and drives up the production costs. The unpredictability of these measures stirs up economic uncertainty and inhibits investments, which contributes to the tense situation.

monetary policy and interest in focus

On the monetary policy stage, it also looks turbulent. Interest is reduced in advanced economies, but inflation only succeeds slowly. The key interest rate in the euro area is currently 2.5 % and could soon reach a neutral level. The ECB is expected to only plan an interest rate reduction. In the United States, on the other hand, the key interest rate is 4.5 %, whereby a price lift through customs policy could increase. This means that low interest rate reductions are more likely to be expected here.

With a view to financial policy, progress is also emerging in the euro area, supported by purchasing power gains and improved financing conditions. But all of this is burdened by uncertainty and industrial barriers. The forecasts for emerging countries, especially China, have also deteriorated through US customs policy, which could slow the expansion of the Chinese economy.

influences of geopolitical risks

A new study by Khalil, East and Strobel shows that geopolitical risks have direct effects on trade currents. Price -adjusted imports from countries decrease with increased risk, while import prices also increase. This development is described as a negative shock on the imports and is a clear indicator of how vulnerable the global trade currents are. The increase in geopolitical risk as a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine is not even taken into account in these analyzes.

In general, the global economy is expected to have little growth, with a forecast of 2.4 % in the coming years, which is below the values ​​of recent years. A slow growth of world trade is expected of 2.1 % or 1.6 %, which is also due to the difficulties that have arisen from US customs policy. We encounter high risks and imponderables everywhere and the effects of these developments can hardly be estimated.

It remains exciting how the situation will develop, and the coming days could be crucial for the markets. It is worth observing the developments, because after all the next impulse could already wait around the next corner.