Political battle in Lower Saxony: SPD and CDU on equal terms, AfD is booming!

Political battle in Lower Saxony: SPD and CDU on equal terms, AfD is booming!

The political landscape in Lower Saxony is currently more exciting than it has been for a long time. A current survey by the opinion research institute infratest dimap, published by NDR Lower Saxony, reveals that the SPD and the CDU have just as many supporters - namely 26 percent each. This is a notable decline for the CDU, which lost a whopping six percentage points compared to last year's survey. The AfD, on the other hand, is completely different. With an increase of five percentage points, it is now at 20 percent and has thus reached a record level. Speaking of records: The question remains what happens next, especially with regard to the upcoming state elections.

After all, the Greens are still at 12 percent, while the Left would make it into the state parliament with 6 percent. Given this distribution, the only realistic government option seems to be a red-black coalition between the SPD and CDU, especially since the current state government made up of the SPD and the Greens no longer has a majority. Coalitions with the AfD are mathematically possible, but are categorically ruled out by the other parties.

Mood images and satisfaction with politicians

A look at satisfaction with politicians shows that Olaf Lies (SPD) remains unchallenged: 43 percent of those surveyed are satisfied with his work. For comparison, Green Party politician Julia Willie Hamburg only gets 18 percent, while Sebastian Lechner from the CDU has 14 percent and Klaus Wichmann from the AfD has 10 percent. The red-green state government received a mixed report overall: 47 percent of citizens are satisfied, while 47 percent are also dissatisfied. However, only 20 percent believe that a CDU-led government could solve problems better.

The feeling of security in Lower Saxony is particularly interesting. 65 percent of those surveyed feel safe in public, which is above the national average of 50 percent. On the other hand, citizens are showing concerned interest in the education debate: a clear majority of 67 percent want a general ban on smartphones in schools up to the 10th grade.

Challenges of the next few years

According to those surveyed, the biggest challenges facing Lower Saxony are education, migration, economy and transport. While 61 percent assess the economic situation negatively, only 35 percent believe that the economy is doing well. These competency assessments are important because they reflect citizens' concerns and could influence the upcoming elections.

An interesting development is the average deviation of the election polls of 1.33 percentage points, which indicates stability in the opinion formation process. These figures are supported by a comprehensive analysis by Dawum, which evaluates various institutes. Dawum also offers insights into the shifts in opinion in recent years Politpro presents a current election trend for the state elections in Lower Saxony, which sees the CDU at 30 percent and the SPD at 25 percent.

As Lower Saxony looks forward to the coming months and the next parliamentary election in 2027, the question of a stable political course and the solution to pressing problems will come to the fore. The indications are clear, citizens want changes and answers to their questions - that is the challenge for the political actors in Lower Saxony.